2nd Edition of Public Health World Conference (PHWC) 2026

Abstract

Objective: Based on the nonlinear characteristics of the evolution of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) policies and using the theory of discontinuous equilibrium as an analytical framework, this study explores the evolutionary logic and driving mechanisms of China’s TCM policies from 1990 to 2025. The findings aim to provide theoretical support and practical guidance for optimizing the TCM governance system, reducing coordination frictions, and establishing a normalized incentive mechanism.

Methods: A sample of 1,243 TCM-related policy documents issued at the central government level between 1990 and 2025 was selected. A combined approach of content analysis and statistical testing was employed to systematically analyze policy intensity, the structure of policy instruments, and governance logic.

Results: The distribution of TCM policy intensity exhibited a leptokurtic (peaked with heavy tails) pattern, with a kurtosis value of 7.26—significantly higher than the theoretical value of 3 for a normal distribution—validating the discontinuous equilibrium model of policy change; Long-term influences of institutional friction and path dependence have kept policies in a state of negative feedback equilibrium; however, at critical junctures such as the 2003 SARS outbreak, the 2009 healthcare reform, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, external shocks and the opening of endogenous institutional windows triggered positive feedback effects, driving significant leaps in policy intensity; the structure of policy instruments has gradually shifted toward a capacity-building orientation, with regulatory instruments maintaining a stable proportion and incentive-based instruments rising markedly during crisis periods; Word frequency analysis indicates that the logic of policy governance has gradually shifted from early emergency response and defense toward preventive management and targeted mobilization.

Conclusion: The evolution of China’s TCM policies is driven by a dual mechanism comprising negative feedback arising from institutional friction and positive feedback driven by external crises and endogenous strategies; this study expands the application of the theory of discontinuous equilibrium to the field of public policy in China, providing important evidence for improving the TCM governance system, optimizing the allocation of policy tools, and enhancing policy effectiveness.